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Sarajevo haggadah

Antaea Darom

Israeli women's art

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Torah as music

Ben Heine

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ceramic bowl

Mohammad Said Kalash, "Offering Reconciliation" exhibit (photo: Ilan Amihai)

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Punch and Judy/Pinchas and Jamila

Avi Katz

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David Grossman

Ben Heine

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Eldrige Street shul

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Ben Heine

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Hoda Jamal

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Israeli and Palestinian boys

from documentary, Promises

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Daylight through the Wall

Banksy: graffiti art on Separation Wall

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Maurice Sendak's Brundibar set

New Victory Theater (photo: Nan Melville/NYT)

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Daniel Barenboim, West-Eastern Divan Orchestra

Palestinian-Israeli musical ensemble (photo: Kerstin Joensson/AP)

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Great Day on Eldrige Street

N.Y.'s klezmer greats celebrate shul rededication (photo: Leo Sorel)

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Joint Appeal for Peace

(Avi Katz)

Joint Appeal for Peace

Ketubah, Ancona, Italy (1772)

(Jewish Theological Seminary library)

Ancona ketubah

Archive for September, 2011

Even Tom Friedman’s Ready to Dump Bibi Down Drain

Sunday, September 18th, 2011

You know things are bad when one of Israel’s most influential apologists throws in the towel and practically concedes defeat.  I don’t believe I’ve ever heard Tom Friedman use these words before:

I’VE never been more worried about Israel’s future. The crumbling of key pillars of Israel’s security — the peace with Egypt, the stability of Syria and the friendship of Turkey and Jordan — coupled with the most diplomatically inept and strategically incompetent government in Israel’s history have put Israel in a very dangerous situation.

On every possible diplomatic front, Friedman concedes not just that Bibi has made a mess of things, but that the situation is hopeless and irretrievable.  That’s about as low as someone of his impeccable pro-Israel credentials can go.  Here is how he characterizes Bibi’s “strategy,” such as it is:

Mr. Netanyahu has a strategy: Do nothing vis-à-vis the Palestinians or Turkey that will require him to go against his base, compromise his ideology or antagonize his key coalition partner, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, an extreme right-winger. Then, call on the U.S. to stop Iran’s nuclear program and help Israel out of every pickle, but make sure that President Obama can’t ask for anything in return — like halting Israeli settlements — by mobilizing Republicans in Congress to box in Obama and by encouraging Jewish leaders to suggest that Obama is hostile to Israel and is losing the Jewish vote. And meanwhile, get the Israel lobby to hammer anyone in the administration or Congress who says aloud that maybe Bibi has made some mistakes, not just Barack. There, who says Mr. Netanyahu doesn’t have a strategy?

Friedman, who knows the pro-Israel lobby well and undoubtedly at times shares much in common with it, analyzes very persuasively the damaging impact that it has on political discourse here in this country and for Israel:

…The powerful pro-Israel lobby in an election season can force the administration to defend Israel at the U.N., even when it knows Israel is pursuing policies not in its own interest or America’s.

He also quotes this persuasive critique by Aluf Benn, Haaretz’s new managing editor:

“The years-long diplomatic effort to integrate Israel as an accepted neighbor in the Middle East collapsed this week…The region is spewing out the Jewish state, which is increasingly shutting itself off behind fortified walls, under a leadership that refuses any change, movement or reform … Netanyahu demonstrated utter passivity in the face of the dramatic changes in the region, and allowed his rivals to seize the initiative and set the agenda.”

Friedman also notes a fascinating account of the failure of the Israel-Turkey deal over the Mavi Marmara offered by Nahum Barnea:

…The two sides agreed that Israel would apologize only for “operational mistakes” and the Turks would agree to not raise legal claims. Bibi then undercut his own lawyers and rejected the deal…

This, of course, is perfectly in character for Bibi.  He flies by the seat of his pants, decides he must reject a carefully crafted compromise for domestic political considerations, and refuses to consider the long-term implications not just for relations with Turkey, but for Israel’s status in the entire region.  The result is an utter disaster externally, while Bibi sits golden in terms of the domestic political situation.

Ehud Olmert did precisely the same thing when Turkey had arranged for proximity talks between Syria and Israel which could’ve led to resolution of their half century conflict.  Instead, Olmert decided to go to war with Hamas, believing this would help his domestic political standing far more than a peace deal with Syria.  Olmert too didn’t reckon that the war would turn into an unmitigated disaster, lead to the Goldstone Report, accusations of war crimes, and the long-term fracturing of Israel’s relations with Turkey.

How heedless and heartless these Israeli leaders are.  They remind me of the Pharaoh of old who, when Moses appeals to him to allow the Israelites their freedom, at first concedes; then thinks better as his heart hardens, and ultimately says no.  The end result: Pharaoh and all his army are drowned in the closing waters of the Red Sea.

Is this the type of disaster that will have to happen for Israel to come to its senses?

Friedman puts his faith in the Israeli electorate to do so and elect new leadership:

One can only hope that the Israeli people will recognize this before this government plunges Israel into deeper global isolation and drags America along with it.

I’m afraid we are far beyond that point.  Besides, Tzipi Livni will only mean changing the names on the office door.  She won’t change attitudes or policies fundamentally. Not to mention that if anything, the Israel electorate is going to the right rather than the center.  Recent polls show Kadima hemmhoraging support to Labor which, for some odd reason is getting a new lease of life.  I’m afraid that if anything, the future shines much brighter for Avigdor Lieberman than Tzipi Livni.  So no, looking for an electoral solution to this problem is not in the cards.  It requires, rather, international intervention.  Israel has become Serbia.  It rampages through the region like a bull in a china shop leaving in its wake death and disaster.  It must be stopped.  And there is only one way to do it.  Impose a settlement.

Of course, Barack Obama, frightened of his own shadow as he is, and in thrall to his Aipac-Svengali Dennis Ross, will not lift a finger to this end.  Which means that either the EU or other international bodies must have the courage of their convictions or this will drag on for years longer with thousands more corpses piled on the funeral prye.  How many dead will it take till they sit up and take notice?

I do take strong issue with this paragraph in Friedman’s column:

Israel is not responsible …for Turkey’s decision to seek regional leadership by cynically trashing Israel or for the fracturing of the Palestinian national movement between the West Bank and Gaza.

Look Tom, no one but Bibi and Barak (Ehud, that is) are responsible for the Mavi Marmara debacle and everything that followed from it incuding Turkey’s decision to throw Israel into the stocks for refusing the deal worked out.  If Erdogan exploited Israel’s missteps for his nation’s political interests, who gave him the opening to do so?  No, sorry, I don’t blame a nation for doing what is in its interests, especially if those interests are articulated in a constructive way, which Erdogan’s are in a regional context.

And as for the fracturing of the Palestinian national movement, certainly Israel is totally at fault for that mess as well.  First, Israel and the U.S. encouraged Abbas to mount a coup d’etat, which Hamas pre-empted.  Had there been no coup attempt, there still would be a unity government in power.  No, Israel wanted a Palestinian government controlled by Fatah or by no one.  It got instead the mess it has now inherited.  Again, no one’s fault but its own.

Sorry Tom, you get a B+ on this one.  You couldn’t help but be dragged down a bit by your inherent pro-Israel inclinations.

BDS and the Nature of the Future Israeli State

Saturday, September 17th, 2011
bds logo

Does BDS mean Israel's destruction?

There are two groups who see the goal of the BDS movement as the destruction of Israel: anti-Zionists and right-wing Israelis.  That ideological dichotomy is remarkable and indicates that while one group opposes and another supports BDS, they both agree it will have the same outcome.

What is the BDS movement to those who support it, partially or in full?  For anti-Zionists and Israeli nationalists it is a means to hasten Israel’s destruction.  For everyone else (including progressive Zionists like myself) it is a way to end the Occupation and hasten Israel’s transformation into a “state for all its citizens.”  In other words, for the far left BDS is an end, while for others it is a means to an end.  The difference between these two approaches is wide and the arguments between both camps rage.  I’m going to try to put forward my own understanding of BDS.

Reviewing the BDS website, it lists three main points in its political platform:

1. Ending its occupation and colonization of all Arab lands and dismantling the Wall 2. Recognizing the fundamental rights of the Arab-Palestinian citizens of Israel to full equality; and 3. Respecting, protecting and promoting the rights of Palestinian refugees to return to their homes and properties as stipulated in UN resolution 194.

Frankly, I don’t see any way that these demands threaten the existence of Israel.  Yes, they would threaten the existence of the type of state Israel is now; that is, an ethnocracy in which Jews have superior rights.  But in the Israel that I envision, in which there is full protection of ethnic majority and minority citizens, their religion and culture, and all have equal rights, BDS does not threaten such a nation.

A side note: after a profile of me appeared in The Forward this week, CAMERA, one of the more mendacious of the pro-Israel propaganda outfits around, claimed I viewed the solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as “one state for all its citizens.”  By which they were claiming I support a one state solution.  In the profile, I explicitly said that I supported a two state solution, but preferred for the parties to decide amongst themselves what solution they preferred over the long run and that if both parties agreed to a one-state solution, there was no reason for an outsider like myself to disagree.

Returning to the BDS issue and the anti-Zionist view of it…I have difficulty with this sort of statement tweeted to me recently:

‘Israel’:…That detested name will be tossed along with everything it has always stood for.

Anti-Zionists like this appear to believe that BDS will mean consigning Israel to the trash heap of history.  I don’t think so.  I don’t find the name Israel to be detestable and I don’t wish it or what it stands for to be “tossed.”  That doesn’t mean I don’t foresee a radical transformation of Israel into a state which embraces the linguistic, cultural and religious heritages of all its citizens.  So while Jews will no longer be king of the roost, they won’t become the sort of second-class citizens Israeli Palestinians are now.

There needs to be in Israel more of a sense of Israeliness, and less of a sense of Jewishness as a substitute for Israeliness.  Israeli Jews should have a religious identity, but that identity should not substitute for a national identity.  The same should hold true for Israeli Palestinians who are Muslim or Christian.

The problem I have is with anti-Zionists who seek to uproot everything that Israel has stood for.  Yes, Israel has stood for much that is evil including the Nakba and the Occupation.  Yes, Israel was conceived in the sin of expulsion and exile of nearly 1-million of its Palestinian residents.  But that doesn’t mean I conceive of a future state that eradicates everything from its past that relates to Israel as a Jewish homeland.

Israel, as I’ve written before, must be a homeland for Jews just as it is a homeland for Palestinians.  There should be no conflict there.  That is why I feel comfortable continuing to call myself a (progressive) Zionist, just as I believe Israeli Palestinians should feel comfortable calling themselves Palestinian nationalists.  The problem for both these nationalisms is when they seek to cancel out the other.  That cannot happen if Israel is to survive.

In the future Israel, history should be studied truthfully, warts and all.  But the notion that Jews must live in this state with their tail between their legs, always quivering, beating their breasts, and declaring their guilt for past sins, means essentially that there would be no Jews in such a state except perhaps anti-Zionist haredi groups like Neturei Karta.

There is another problem I have with any serious observer of this conflict who believes their solution is the only possible one and that all others are not just wrong, but morally offensive.  Studying this subject tends to make one humble and realize that while you may have a preference, or even a strong preference, things may turn out differently than what you conceive.  When we scorn the options that don’t meet with our moral approval we show hubris.  Future events may just take us down a notch or two.  That’s why I state my inclination that at the present juncture a two state solution is most advisable.  But who knows what the future may bring?  If 27 European countries can create a strong Union over decades, why isn’t possible something similar might happen in Israel-Palestine?  I leave myself open to these possibilities and wish those on my left (and right) would as well.

From debating the meaning of BDS, our Twitter dispute moved on to the topic of Israeli Palestinian identity within the contemporary Israeli state.  Reading polls over the years, I was frankly surprised that Israel’s Palestinian Arab citizens identified as strongly with the concept of Israeliness as they do.  I would’ve thought the level of hostility and alienation would be much higher than it is.

Andrew Kadi, among others, in his Twitter feed scoffed at these claims saying no poll result of Israeli Palestinians could be trusted with someone’s foot on their neck.  Rejecting this notion, I decided to examine some of the polls taken over the years chronicling Israeli Palestinian attitudes toward the Israeli state.  But before delving into that, let me be clear about what I’m not trying to do.  I’m not trying to prove how good Israel is to “its Arabs.”  Or how much Israeli Palestinian citizens adore the Jewish state, as pro-Israel hasbarists often do.  Unlike Daniel Pipes and his ilk, I do not believe the fact that Israeli Palestinians would choose to live in Israel rather than in a Palestinian state, means an endorsement of Israel or rejection of Palestine.  I recognize that there is deep ambivalence on the part of these citizens toward their country, which does, after all, discriminate against them in almost every aspect of life.

Now, to the surveys: Professor Sammy Smooha (and to a lesser extent, the Israel Democracy Institute) have extensively polled the Israeli Palestinian community on these issues over an extended period of time.  So it’s worth examining their findings.  In Smooha’s compilation of his survey results from 2003-2009, he found that Israeli Palestinians have grown progressively more radical and more hostile toward Israel and their role within the State.  They have done so because they view Israeli Jews as increasingly racist and belligerent towards them.  But it would be a mistake to claim, as anti-Zionists do, that Israeli Palestinians because of their suffering are anti-Zionists who seek the end of Israel.  The real picture is much more complicated and ambivalent.

Smooha, in fact posits a dual theory about Jewish-Palestinian relations.  The first is the mutual alienation theory which says that the two ethnic groups are on a collision course that will likely end in violence.  According to this perspective, Palestinians are an unassimilable minority and that as they become increasingly Islamized and nationalist and Jews become increasingly nationalist and Judaized, the only thing that remains is a lit match to ignite the coming inferno.

But Smooha also offers a more hopeful (perhaps more hopeful than might otherwise be justified) thesis which he calls the mutual rapprochement theory.  He describes it this way:

…The mutual rapprochement thesis, posits that Arabs and Jews are in the process of adjusting to each other and that strong forces moderate and counterpoise the forces that drive the two sides apart. Violence and instability are therefore avoidable. The attitudes and behaviors of the Arabs, the Palestinian people, the Jews, and the state are more balanced and less counterproductive to coexistence than the mutual alienation thesis assumes and predicts. Mutual rapprochement also postulates that Israeli Arabs are undergoing Israelization as well as Palestinization and Islamization, and that the first affects the second two. Israelization makes Arabs bilingual and bicultural and adds the Hebrew language and Hebrew culture to their repertoire.

Israeli Arabs, the thesis holds, are increasingly binding their fate and future with Israel and conceiving of Israel as their home country. They take Jews as their reference group and wish to achieve the same standards, services, and treatment. They abide by democratic rules for effecting change in Israeli society and avoid violence. Israelization renders Arabs impatient with discrimination and exclusion and drives them to lead a serious fight for change.

Another pivotal facet of Israelization is the sharpening line Israeli Arabs draw between themselves and the Palestinians across the Green Line and in the Diaspora. They view themselves as Israeli citizens entitled to all citizenship rights and as part of the Israeli economy, welfare state, politics, and public discourse, and in this capacity are only partly affected by what is happening to their Palestinian brethren. They endure Palestinization and Islamization differently because of their Israelization. For instance, Arabs in Nazareth who adopt a Palestinian identity would define themselves as Palestinian Arabs in Israel, whereas Arabs in the West Bank city of Nablus would categorize themselves just as Palestinian Arabs or as Palestinian Arabs in Palestine. The affinity and common fate with Israel make considerable difference and drive a wedge between Palestinians on the two sides of the pre-1967 border.

On the spectrum between the hopeful and hopeless regarding Israeli Palestinian-Jewish relations, I come down in the middle. While I believe that there is a very real capacity for violence between the two ethnic groups and that Israel will have to be radically transformed (but not destroyed) in order to fully realize the democratic rights of this minority, I do not believe either that Israel must end or that a civil war is inevitable before Palestinians become equal. Smooha’s survey results show that Palestinians have increasingly boycotted Israeli elections (voting declined from 73% in 2003 to 53% in 2009).  Jewish participation has also declined over the same period but by a smaller rate.  Voting for Arab parties increased from 69% to 82%. Smooha notes one of the most critical aspects of the dynamic at work governing inter-ethnic behavior involves what he calls a “fear balance:”

The most important development to follow the October 2000 unrest is, nonetheless, the emergence of a fear balance between the state and the Arab population. Both  sides are keenly aware of the heavy cost in the event of confrontation—use of violence, uprising, and repression. Each side does its utmost to keep quiet. The police do not intervene in Arab demonstrations, rallies, processions, general strikes, and other protest actions as long as there is no large-scale breach of law and order. They refrain from using firearms and coordinate their actions with Arab public figures. The Arab public also abstains from statewide mass disorder. The fear balance explains why the disturbances in Peqi’in and Acre did not deteriorate to the degree that the October 2000 uprising did.

While this isn’t a terribly hopeful portrayal of the equilibrium between Jews and Palestinians, it’s important to note that it exists. Here are some salient results from the survey.  In 2009, 64% believed Israel had a right to exist.  78% believed Jewish-Palestinian relations should only be changed by peaceful means.  53% believed Palestinians would have “national minority status and equal rights in a Jewish and democratic state, and would eventually come to terms with it.”  66% have positive attitudes toward Jews.

The following results show the increasing alienation over the period from 2003 to 2009: in 2003 only 16% were not ready to have a Jewish friend.  By 2009, that number had risen to 29%.  27% were dissatisfied with life as an Israeli citizen in 2003 and 43% in 2009.  14% were ready to move to a Palestinian state (not Israel) in 2003 and 24% in 2009.  In 2003, 75% believed Jews have a right to a state as opposed to 61% in 2009.  89% believed in a two state solution in 2003, and 65% in 2009.  72% believed in 2003 the Right of Return should be confined to a Palestinian state;  50% believed this in 2009.  In 2003, 29% believed the most important aspect of their identity was being Israeli, while that declined to 20% in 2009.  19% believed their Palestinian identity was paramount in 2003, while 32% believed this in 2009.  Those who saw Arabness as being most important to their identity numbered 53% in 2003 and 40% in 2009. In 2003, 63% believed Israel was a democratic state for both Arab and Jewish citizens.  By 2009, that number declined to 50%.  81% believed Palestinians could improve their status through peaceful activism, and only 62% in 2003.  The number who supported a national election boycott rose from 33% to 40%.  Only 5% supported violent protest in 2003, and 13% in 2009.  The numbers of those who rejected Israel’s right to exist rose from 11% in 2003 to 24% in 2009.  In 2009, 55% of Israeli Palestinians endorsed the concept of Arab-Jewish coexistence.

Smooha suggests that the best way to improve Jewish-Palestinian relations is by policy changes rather than paradigm shifts.  While I disagree strongly with a number of the provisions below (and others I haven’t quoted), I think they represent a decent, albeit distinctly Jewish starting point for discussion:

Israel can accommodate the Arab minority without losing its character as a Jewish and democratic state, and the Arabs can fulfill most of their demands without  transforming Israel into a full binational state. Moderating Israel’s Jewish and Zionist character, consolidating its democracy, and forming a Palestinian state on the West Bank and Gaza are compatible with the visions of both sides. Israel would continue to be a Jewish state with a Law of Return, Hebrew as a dominant language, Jewish symbols, and a Jewish calendar. At the same time, it would give up Jewish exclusivity and preferential treatment of Jews.

For example, some of Israel’s symbols would be Arab, the special status of the Jewish National Fund and Jewish Agency would be abolished, and discriminatory state policies would be terminated. …Arab citizens would be granted national collective rights in addition to their current ethnic collective rights. Recognition of Arabs as a national Palestinian minority (not coequal nation) would legitimize their ties with the Palestinian people and bestow on them cultural autonomy, proper representation in the national power structure (but not power-sharing by law), proportional share of the state budget and the civil service, and allocation of lands according to needs. Arabs would be denied veto power, but their political parties would be allowed into coalition governments and required to be consulted in matters essential to their community.

…Equality would be the cornerstone of Israel’s new constitution. Affirmative action in certain areas and for a limited time would replace institutional discrimination against Arabs. The Emergency Situation would end and an Israeli internal security law and regulations would replace the existing illiberal British legislation. Civil marriage and divorce law would allow interfaith mixing. A campaign to promote democratic culture among Jews and Arabs would be executed. Most important, the state would launch a large-scale program to raise Arabs’ standards in community services and socioeconomic achievements to that of Jews.

The Israel Democracy Institute also polls Israeli Jews and Palestinians for their respective political and social attitudes.  In 2007, its survey found (translation from Hebrew version of article) that 75% of:

“Israeli Arabs would support a constitution that maintained Israel’s status as a Jewish and democratic state while guaranteeing equal rights for minorities.”

As I’ve written before, I believe that both Israeli Jewish and Palestinians citizens could live together in a state that guaranteed equal rights to all, offered a constitution that enshrined protections for both majority and minority groups, and adopted a modified version of both the Law of Return and Right of Return.  There is no reason the State can’t be bilingual, and religious freedoms be guaranteed to all.  No reason budgets can’t be allocated equally to Jewish and Palestinian communities, and health care, job, and educational opportunities as well.  There is also no reason why Jewish and Palestinian children can’t learn Israeli history, warts and all, and learn to acknowledge both the virtues of their nation and its sins as well.

Though the Israeli Palestinian attitudes above don’t guarantee this vision can be realized, they go a good deal of the way in that direction.  To be perfectly frank, current Israeli Jewish attitudes preclude the type of transformation I envision above.  That will be an enormous hurdle to overcome.  I’m not sure it can be done.  But the alternative is precisely the sort of dissolution of the Israeli state which anti-Zionists anticipate.  Then we will have a one-state solution.

U.S. ‘Ideas’ to Resolve Israel-Palestine Negotiation Impasse, Same-Old, Same-Old

Saturday, September 17th, 2011

This week’s Israel-Palestine quiz:

Who was recently referred to as sometimes sounding like “an Israeli diplomat?” a.Dennis Ross b. Barack Obama c. Tony Blair d. Danny Ayalon or e. all of the above?  For the answer, read on…

Today’s NY Times reports a strong statement by Nabil Shaath defending the PA’s decision to take its statehood campaign to the UN Security Council.  But what especially struck me about Shaath’s statement was his stinging dismissal of David Hale and Dennis Ross’ intervention on behalf of the Netanyahu government (yes, you heard me right–read farther below):

Mr. Shaath was blunt in his dismissal of the elements of a statement presented to Mr. Abbas on Thursday by Dennis B. Ross and David M. Hale, two senior American officials. Tony Blair, the former British prime minister and Quartet representative, has been the central player in drafting the statement. Quartet envoys were due to meet in New York on Sunday.

Mr. Shaath said the statement “violated six parameters of the peace process,” including accepting Israeli settlement growth, calling Israel a “Jewish state,” pre-empting discussion of a right of return for Palestinian refugees to Israel, and rejecting efforts to unify rival Palestinian factions: Fatah, which dominates the Palestinian Authority, and Hamas, which rules in Gaza.

In other words, all that the pro-Israel flacks in the Obama administration could come up with was a vague commitment to do something on behalf of Palestinian interests in return for the PA giving up almost all of its key national interests in the negotiations.  It would accept Israel as a Jewish state, renounce the Right of Return, and renounce any effort to reconcile with Hamas.  And this is a serious proposal, how?  What this proposal does is advance Israel’s narrow interests in maintaining the status quo.  It gives Palestine nothing.  That’s why Shaath made this telling comment about Tony Blair, one of Ross’ partners in crime in this little caper:

Mr. Shaath said that when he himself saw the Quartet statement proposal: “I gulped. This was the statement that was supposed to persuade President Abbas not to go? Mr. Blair doesn’t sound like a neutral interlocutor. He sounds like an Israeli diplomat sometimes.”

Why not?  Blair was Bush’s poodle, why not be Bibi’s as well?  More likely though, Blair is doing Obama’s bidding in hopes of some prestigious international post as befits His Eminence.

Henry Siegman adds his voice to the debate with another sharp rebuke of Obama policy:

America has absurd[ly] insisted…most recently [via] President Obama on September 12 — that a Palestinian state can be achieved only as a result of an agreement between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Abbas. Surely President Obama must know that left to their own devices, Netanyahu and Abbas will never reach a two state agreement, and that the only purpose a resumed “peace process” would serve is to continue to provide a cover for further Israeli land grabs in the West Bank.

The U.S. might have persuaded President Abbas to abandon the U.N. initiative in favor of resumed negotiations had it reassured him that if the Netanyahu/Lieberman government does not offer them a peace plan within a reasonable period of time based on the 1967 borders, agreed-upon equal territorial swaps and the sharing of Jerusalem, the U.S. would itself present such a plan to the Security Council.

Unfortunately the U.S. lacked the political courage to do so. Instead of enabling President Abbas to withdraw his U.N. initiative by providing him with a justification for such a move, the U.S. has sought to intimidate Palestinian leadership into changing course by threatening to exercise its veto in the Security Council and ending America’s financial support for the Palestinian Authority. Leaving aside the perverseness of this threatened “punishment” — which will not only end Israeli-Palestinian security collaboration but will increase the likelihood of a third Intifada — when has an American president recently threatened an Israeli government with any kind of punishment for their rejection of U.S. advice, even when Israeli actions have been in clear violation of international law?

If anyone can get access to the original proposal submitted by Hale and Ross to Abbas, I’d love to publicize it here.

On a related note, Haaretz reports that the Israeli government may institute emergency laws which would compromise the rights of detainees in anticipation of supposed riots which Israel anticipates in response to the Palestinian failure in the UN:

According to the plan, the police will be authorized to detain any suspect for up to nine hours instead of three hours, as currently stipulated by the law. This will allow the police sufficient time to investigate the role of the suspect in any disturbance, and is based on the assumption that there will be large numbers of suspects held.

Another assumption is that it will be necessary to create large and isolated holding areas where the police can evaluate whether a person in custody will be arrested or released.

One proposal would allow police to use force against those being detained – and not only against those being arrested, as they are now authorized to do.

While currently the law mandates that a person arrested must be brought before the court in 24 hours from the time of arrest, the proposed regulations would allow the police to extend that to 48 hours.

This would mean that for two full days there would be no judicial supervision of the police actions or decision to arrest.

That change would also harm the right of a person arrested to meet with an attorney without delay. The Supreme Court has recognized this obligation by the investigating authorities, and ruled that it is possible to disqualify admissions by suspects if the prisoner had no access to a lawyer.

Another chapter in the document proposes certain circumstances under which a minor, suspected of having taken part in protests, could be brought before a judge within 48 hours – instead of the current 12-hour limit.

Israeli criticism of the plan doesn’t revolve around violation of rights of Palestinians, but rather the rights of Jewish criminal suspects in unrelated cases which also could be trampled.  Ehud Barak said that the Palestinian UN statehood campaign was a “train wreck.”  Little did he know that it would also be a train wreck for Israeli democracy.

Abbas Going for Gold

Friday, September 16th, 2011
abbas statehood

Mahmoud Abbas announced Palestine will apply for full UN membership (Tara Todras Whitehill/AP)

In an uncharacteristically bold move for an otherwise grey figure, Mahmoud Abbas announced today that he would move for Palestine’s full membership in the United Nations with a vote in the Security Council.  This poses a huge headache for the Obama administration, whose torn and tattered Mideast policy is coming under increasing scorn from Arab nations and those of the rest of the world as well.  No doubt, the U.S. will veto a resolution in support of a proposition (an independent Palestinian state) it otherwise supports.  Added to an earlier veto of a a resolution opposing Israeli settlements (another policy is ostensibly supports), the U.S. response is certain, but ultimately futile.

Abbas’ move for full membership indicates his judgment that Obama’s (and by extension, Israel’s) position is becoming increasing untenable.  The tide is turning.  The American boat has missed the turning of the tide and is stuck on a sandbar.

Yesterday, I wrote a post analyzing the shibboleths of the anti-statehood camp (i.e. U.S. and Israeli diplomats) and one of them was the supposed certainty of Palestinian violence in the wake of frustrated expectations.  Here’s a perfect example of this nonsense from none other than Ethan Bronner and his sidekick, Isabel Kershner.  Note here the mysterious, unsourced but always useful reportorial “some,” which through overuse has become accepted wisdom:

Some fear that Mr. Abbas’s move will raise expectations among his people, with nothing changing for them on the ground. Combined with alarmed reactions from Israeli settlers, violent showdowns could erupt.

Who is ‘some?’  Is ‘some’ a real source or a made-up concept in the minds of Bronner and his U.S. and Israeli sources?  And if so, by what evidence do they posit that there will be violence?  And has their track record in predicting other events been good enough to trust this lame prognostication?  ”Nothing changing for them on the ground?  Nothing’s changed on the ground for the past 20 years, why would they expect anything different on the ground.  Where things will change is the Palestinian’s ability to mount offenses on the world stage against Israeli attacks on civilians, settlements, Occupation, etc.

Note as well, that Bronner credits the possibility for settler violence, but not the likelihood for IDF and Border Police violence, which is actually as concerning or even more so given the heightened lethality of the weapons at their disposal.  Further, you’d think that the IDF and police could handle settler violence and provocation and repress it if necessary.  The fact that Bronner worries that settlers could ignite a contagion indicates less than full faith in the abilities of Israeli authorities to contain violence from their side.

No mention, of course, that the leader of the national Palestinian non-violent protests will be Abu Rachme, who has led the Bilin anti-Wall protests for several years.  This movement has historically embraced non-violence, and therefore it will take a huge amount of provocation from the Israeli side to create serious violent disturbances.

I should add that Republican threats to turn off the spigot of U.S. to Palestine should it go forward with the UN vote will not only fail to achieve its desired objective (whatever that is), but it will further isolate the U.S.  There will be other countries, no doubt, eager to fill the vacuum that we leave in Palestine.  Perhaps Iran, Turkey, any number of states whom we’d be better off preventing from pursuing their interests in this matter (at least from the U.S. perspective).  We give them a golden opportunity.  So thanks Republicans for doing what you think is a favor for Israel, but which only harms it in the long run.

Bibi to Support Palestinian General Assembly Bid…With Major Caveat

Thursday, September 15th, 2011

Haaretz reports the confusing news that the EU’s foreign minister has devised an entirely new UN sub-state category and proposes that the General Assembly approve an upgrade of Palestinian status to such a rank.  This would preclude Palestine from bringing claims before the International Criminal Court.  As you can imagine, Bibi Netanyahu loves the idea and the Palestinians hate it (though Ynetnews argues, fatuously I believe, that the Palestinians are seriously considering the proposal).

One purpose of the proposal, whether intended or not, is to divide the 27 EU member votes and thus fragment support for Palestine’s GA proposal. I doubt this will work.  In fact, Haaretz notes that a number of EU states have derided Catherine Ashton Taylor for her proposal, saying she did so on her own initiative without consulting them.  So I think this is yet another “flyer” born out of U.S.-Israel desperation that the GA vote will bring Palestine into the UN as a nonvoting member state.  This would enable it to call Israel to account for its policies in clear violation of international law including settlements, Operations Cast Lead, the first Lebanon war, the assassination of Salah Shehadeh, etc.  Obama and Netanyahu are scared shitless that the day after this vote the ICC will have to hang a symbolic shingle outside its front door saying: “Welcome Palestine: Open for Business.”

Haaretz also notes that Bibi will indeed go to the UN and address it on the same day the Palestinians will bring their proposal to the body. It seems a fool’s errand and destined to re-emphasize the isolation of Israel on this issue.  But let it not be said that Bibi is afraid of entering the lion’s den.  Though I think that discretion should be the better part of valor in cases like this; and discretion is one quality he lacks.

Haaretz also reports the astonishing news that the Ministry of Yvet (aka the ministry of foreign affairs) summoned five EU ambassadors and explicitly directed their countries to vote against Palestinian statehood in the UN:

…The Israeli officials…said: “What we expect from your countries is simply to vote against any resolution.”

Only in Israel would they tell diplomats of countries that can eat Israel for breakfast what their foreign policy must be regarding Palestine. The funny thing is that one of them, Germany, is known to be sympathetic to Israel’s position. But with chutzpah like this there’s liable to be a backlash, with Israel even losing the Holocaust-induced guilty sympathy of that nation.

Israeli Diplomats Flee Yet Another Arab Capital

Thursday, September 15th, 2011

It appears that Israeli diplomats are fleeing yet another Arab capital, and this one usually an exceedingly peaceful one for Israel: Amman.  The Israeli government announced that its entire staff would evacuate the embassy in advance of several pro-Palestine statehood demonstrations planned for the city this weekend:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman ordered the early evacuation of Israel’s embassy in Jordan on Wednesday, over fears of violent anti-Israel protests similar to those which erupted in Cairo last week.

While no one wishes for Israeli diplomatic personnel to be harmed, it seems odd to flee an embassy before you even know of a concrete threat against it.  What’s worrying Israel?  That 3,000 Jordanians signed up in support of the demonstrations on Facebook.  Keep in mind, Jordan is a relatively stable Arab country in which security is relatively tight.  What does Israel have to be afraid of?  I think these people are afraid of their own shadows at least when they’re in an Arab nation.  If a demonstration of a few hundred people is what you’re afraid of, it seems the Arab Spring and its methods really have you spooked.  Why not roll the carpet up and bring all the Israeli diplomats from Arab capitals and admit Israel is licked and there’s no point in having diplomatic representation in these places (I say that half-facetiously)? Israel, this is the foreign policy brought to you by Avigdor Lieberman.  A policy of defeat and confusion in the Arab world; and a policy of truculence in the western world.

Israel’s attitude toward the Arab world is exemplied by this translation of the Hebrew version of the Haaretz article.  Ostensibly, the official is expressing his satisfaction that Jordan, unlike Egypt, can control demonstrations in its territory:

“In Jordan there’s a landlord, a responsible adult and they won’t permit riots Cairo-style.”

This speaks volumes about Israeli attitudes towards its neighbors.  Nations liberated by the Arab Spring and enjoying the first fruits of democracy are irresponsible teenagers let loose on a drunken spree.  The traditional authoritarian regimes being toppled right and left, as represented by Jordan’s monarchy (still relatively stable), are the sorts of governments with which Israel feels comfortable.  Because after all, in this benighted perspective, the only people that can handle democracy is the Jews (i.e. Israel).  Arabs clearly can’t handle democracy because they revert to their worst animalistic tendencies.  The racism inherent in this notion tells all of us how much farther Israel’s leaders have to go before they can ever hope to be integrated into the region.

Striking Down Shibboleths as UN Statehood Vote Nears

Wednesday, September 14th, 2011

There are a number of shibboleths U.S. and Israeli officials repeat endlessly as if doing so might make them come true.  This one is from Hillary Clinton:

 “The only way of getting a lasting solution is through direct negotiations between the parties, and the route to that lies in Jerusalem and Ramallah, not in New York.”

But is there any truth in this claim?  What has direct negotiation achieved for the Palestinians in the past decade or more?  Nothing.  Why does Clinton have any confidence that a Palestinian return to negotiations would achieve anything for them?  She offers no evidence to support this claim.  Why?  Because of Bibi Netanyahu (and before him Ehud Olmert).  Israel simply isn’t prepared to negotiate in good faith.  Sure Israel will negotiate on its terms and possibly agree to a sham (for the Palestinians) settlement that gave it virtually all it sought and the Palestinians virtually nothing.  That’s what was proposed during the Olmert years as shown by the Palestine Papers published by Al Jazeera.

Another shibboleth, this one articulated by former IDF chief of staff and Kadima MK, Shaul Mofaz:

…The EU should not back a Palestinian unilateral declaration of state as this would only engender “another round of violence.”

The argument–and an incredibly condescending one it is, as it presumes Israel and the west can divine Palestinian motivations–is that Palestinian hope will expand at the prospect of statehood granted by the UN.  But when such hopes are dashed and Palestinians see how little it has actually achieved for them, they will turn to a third Intifada out of frustration.  This in turn will bring waves of strikes and violence which Israel will be forced to crush with force, thus setting the peace process back even farther than it was before the statehood bid began.

The fallacy of this claim is that no one knows, and certainly not U.S. and Israeli policymakers who’ve proven they are the most tone-deaf in understanding Palestinian interests, what the outcome of the statehood bid will be, and how it will impact public opinion in Palestine.  Most Palestinians are exceedingly pragmatic and patient.  They understand that their leadership cannot deliver full statehood on a silver platter all at once.  I seriously doubt there will be such mass uprisings when so-called despair sets in.

On the other hand, there is a party which would gain immensely if there was such violence: Israel, and specifically its far right government.  They want no settlement with the Palestinians and violence plays into their hands.  If there is no such violence it would not at all be above Israel to provoke it.  Targeted assassinations in the West Bank or Gaza, bombing of Gaza tunnels and killing workers inside them, all of these would ratchet up tensions to the boiling point and set off the sort of mass violence the U.S. and Israel feign they fear.  The fact that the IDF has stockpiled weapons and sanctioned vigilante patrols for “self-defense” is also deeply alarming.  The Israeli media is also replete with IDF announcements that it is readying military units for service should there be an uprising.  This is also adding tinder to the situation, for where soldiers sit idle, there will be generals seeking a reason to fight.

Israel has done this before.  This was how the first and second Intifadas began: one with Ariel Sharon traipsing through the sacred grounds of the Temple Mount; and the IDF southern commander Tzvika Fogel attesting that the army played its part in provoking the second Intifada.  And of course, Operation Cast Lead was preceded by Israel breaking the Gaza ceasefire by bombing the Egypt tunnels and killing a number of Hamas activists in the process.  Of course, it takes two to tango and the Palestinians play along with retaliatory missiles, etc.  But as Israel is far stronger militarily, the onus lies on it when it comes to provocation.

In truth, I worry that the violence will arise from the Israeli side.  Either it will react to a Bilin-type peaceful protest with massive force as it did along the Lebanon and Syrian borders.  Or it will provoke such violence with the type of provocation I outlined above.  Either way, this is what could light the tinderbox.  We could see scores, if not hundreds dead.  Israel would look upon the Palestinian dead in mock horror and say: “Look what they made us do to them.”  Then the world might blame the statehood bid for the violence.  This is for Bibi a notion devoutly to be wished for.

The problem with this scenario is that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is no longer easily managed by Israel with its U.S. handlers.  Now, all the countries liberated by the Arab Spring will be watching.  And especially Turkey will be watching.  Its leader has signaled it will no longer be business as usual and that his nation sees a vested interest in settling this conflict.  So if Israel wants to go about killing Palestinians, it will no longer face a few hundred Qassam missiles in reply.  Instead, it will face a nation whose population, military and economy is many times larger than Israel.

This is a new ballgame for Israel.  It’s always succeeded, with a few exceptions, in dividing and conquering its Arab enemies.  And there has never been any Arab-Muslim power that was decidedly stronger than Israel.  Those days are rapidly coming to an end.  The only question is whether Israel will recognize this, trim its sails, and avoid a confrontation; or whether it will have to be taught a lesson before it recognizes the new limitations.

Of course, I’m outlining what I think the new realities are.  It remains to be seen how this will play out.  Some or most of what I foresee could happen.  Or it could happen differently.  But I doubt it will happen much differently.

What is truly annoying about the role the U.S. is playing in all this is that serves as the stereo speakers and amplifier of Israel’s far-right government.  In not a single way is Obama’s “policy” out of sync with the Netanyahu government.  We know Obama hates this guy’s guts.  We know Obama supports a two state solution.  We know Obama opposes settlements.  But alas, we also know that Obama doesn’t have the guts for a fight.  So instead he runs along in the shadow of big brother, Bibi.  It’s shameful when you think of it.  A major failure of will.  And all to get re-elected.  In order to serve a second term, in which he will squander his possibilities as he squandered them in his first term.

Turkey’s Erdogan Fills Middle East Power Vacuum Left by U.S.

Wednesday, September 14th, 2011

I was just listening to a Turkish professor on To the Point discuss the emergence of his country as a major regional player in the commercial, military and diplomatic affairs of the Middle East.  He mentioned that Egypt’s revolution had forced it to step back from such a role as it contemplated its future.  He also said that Israel has increasingly boxed itself into a corner and lessened its own leverage in the region, which has included deterioration of relations with both former allies (well, Egypt wasn’t exactly an ally, but you know what I mean).  This has left a vacuüm in regional politics which Erdogan has had the vision and skill to fill.  Not just that, Erdogan has had the ability to do something Pres. Obama Hasmalit not been willing or able to do.  He’s been willing to crack the whip to get the various players to sit up and take notice.  Israel has been a prime “victim” of this approach.

One critical factor that’s led to the rise of Turkey is the abandonment by the Obama administration of any sort of active, engaged role in the region.  Sure, its stalwarts will retort that the president does have an active policy.  But what he really has is a semblance of a policy, not the real thing.  As I’ve reported here, the president’s Middle East policy has foundered on lack of fortitude in reining in Israel’s appetite for settlements and the latter’s bellicosity toward its neighbors.  Obama has not been willing to do the hard things that would call the Israeli government to heel.  But Erdogan has.  And that makes all the difference in Turkey’s ascendancy and the U.S.’ decline in status in the region.

It was Turkey which brought together Syria and Israel for talks which may’ve led to a negotiated settlement of all outstanding differences and the return of the Golan to Syria.  This rapprochement was disrupted by Ehud Olmert’s decision to invade Gaza.  It was Turkey together with Brazil, which attempted to broker a deal to resolve the Iran nuclear issue.   It did all these things in an attempt to play a constructive role and resolve conflict.

But the flip side of leadership is also to know when tough medicine is called for in relations with a neighbor.  Sometimes honey doesn’t work and vinegar is necessary.  That’s why Turkey is forcing Israel to pay a price for its hubristic behavior whether it be Operation Cast Lead or the Mavi Marmara assault.  Erdogan also recognizes that the political currents from the Arab Spring work in his favor and not Israel’s.

Obama’s problem?  He refuses to make enemies, even the right ones: whether they be Republicans, (some) American Jews or Israelis.  Well, you can’t exercise leadership if you’re only kind, gentle and nurturing.  There are times when you need to tell people who’s boss.  Erdogan is willing to do that.  Obama isn’t.  Erdogan is willing to call Israel a “spoiled child.”  Obama calls Israel the “best friend we have.”  Erdogan is willing to tell the Arab League that supporting Palestinian statehood in the UN is “not a choice but an obligation.”  Obama contradicts his own nation’s policy in denying Palestine statehood, making him look the fool.  That’s the difference.

Obama’s hesitance reminds me of recent coverage of a presidential speech by Dmitri Medvedev, who’s running for another term against his former mentor, Vladimir Putin.  The entire nation awaited a forceful statement of his vision, an urgent call to arms revealing his political agenda.  When he had the attention of all Russia, what did he do?  He delivered a stale list of platitudes, thus showing his countrymen and women he didn’t have the heart for a fight.

This is Obama in spades.  He simply doesn’t have the heart for the trench warfare sometimes necessary to win in politics.  And that, in a nutshell is why Erdogan is a true leader with the potential of greatness, while our president is an also ran.

To be sure, Erdogan is not perfect.  Human rights in Turkey are sometimes threatened and the Kurds are not free.  But at least this is a leader aware of the weaknesses of his country and working (perhaps too slowly in some areas) to repair them.  Can we say the same about Bibi Netanyahu or even Barack Obama?

On a slightly different subject, we can see that a vote for Palestinian statehood in the General Assemby, which seems likely, could bring a huge wave of violence in the Middle East.  While Israel claims that the violence would be originated by protesting Palestinians, the IDF itself has played a huge role in escalating tensions by declaring its expectation of violence.  The world must put Israel on notice that it will not accept mass violence against Palestinians.  It will not accept a national price tag policy from the Netanyahu government as a consequence of Palestinian rejection of U.S.-Israel directives to abandon the statehood bid.  I fear this.  I fear it greatly.  It could be like the Mavi Marmara assault except on a much greater scale.  I would love to be proven wrong and hope I am.

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