http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Assassins+caught+video+reveals+possible+Mossad+Fatah+link/2606321/story.html

1. There was some obvious infiltration into the iran/Hamas weapons network by mossad people. The only thing we don’t know is how deep and from which end. It is highly likely that someone(s) would need to pose as an Iranian middleman as part of a ruse to get al-mahboud to Dubai. In such a case, the pretend “iranian” would need to cover their tracks, making sure they lead to Iran, hence the escape route (which BTW, we don’t know where it lead and where the agents disembarked. A ship is definitely easier to slip off incognito than a plane).
2. The most puzzling aspect of the whole operation is Hamas allowing a presumably high level operative like al-mahboud to travel by himself, with no security detail, and virtually no precautions. That means that hamas either had a high level of confidence in his safety – a strange prospect given previous attempts to off him, or that al-mahboud conducted his own rogue operation without the full blessing of hamas higher-ups – either by himself, or as part of a cell.

There is a third possibility, which I’ve been musing over for a while now. The assassinated hamas may have been a sacrificial lamb, who either had enemies within hamas or has outlived his usefullness, and was ‘given up”. In this scenario, one or more hamas people could be double agents – pretend to have been turned by Mossad, only to alert Dubai either just before or just after the assassination took place. The purpose of such an operation would be to give israel a black eye at the cost of a single individual (who may or may not have been as important as portrayed).

The reason I contemplate that third possibility at all is from looking at the tried and true “who benefits”, which in my book, reads “who REALLY benefits”. It certainly isn’t israel – or the Mossad. What good they got from the murder is more than out-weighted by the repercussions from exposure of so many agents, not to mention methods of operation. Surely, there would have been, somewhere in Mossad’s guts, saner minds who’d contemplate the eventuality of exposure of this many people (could mossad has become this complacent? may be). Hamas, despite losing one individual, benefits for obvious reasons. Israel is exposed as duplicitous to it’s friends and possibly, hamas may now get cooperation from other intelligence agencies, thus helping legitimizing itself. Iran benefits because this totally muddies the waters regarding israel’s push for sanctions and takes attention away from its internal suppression of dissent. But the greatest beneficiary is Dubai police, which are getting, by and large, rave reviews for the investigative job they did. And Dubai did need the good press lately.

Somewhere, within the possibilities above (playing out in in one or more twists) the truth lies. Of that much I’m convinced.

Ain’t conspiracies great?

I have no experience in espionage and in covert ops

That’s the operative statement as far as yr comment goes.